Benjamin Cowen provides a deep dive into current Bitcoin market dynamics. The CoinSpeech team collected the most important points from his recent insights. Watch Benjamin Cowen’s new video below.
Current Market Observations
Bitcoin’s pricing currently sits at $66,000, experiencing a slight dip over recent days. Comparing this to historical data, Cowen notes, “Bitcoin’s dominance has been slowly going higher.” This pattern of Bitcoin absorbing liquidity from the altcoin market often results in a rise in its dominance.
Sources of Liquidity
Cowen points out that liquidity isn’t just coming from altcoins: “If you go over to the whole spot… the total Bitcoin spot ETF Holdings have gone higher.” Despite more funds entering spot ETFs, Bitcoin has not reached new all-time highs, challenging the notion of market manipulation.
He emphasizes, “There are other sources of liquidity than just people putting their money into spot ETFs.” Factors beyond ETF flows, including those who buy Bitcoin through exchanges, contribute significantly.
Custody and Lessons from the Past
On the topic of custody, Cowen reverberates the cryptocurrency mantra: “Not your keys, not your Bitcoin.” He reflects on past mishaps with platforms offering interest on Bitcoin, advising viewers to hold their own keys unless they’re certain they can’t manage them.
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins
Comparing Bitcoin with altcoins, Cowen asserts, “Altcoins at some point are going to capitulate down to the range lows.” Historical patterns from 2019, such as withdrawal of social interest and the correlation with FED activities, provide context for current market behavior.
Advanced Decline Index and Market Cap Analysis
The Advanced Decline Index, “shows you how it’s just been capitulating recently.” Cowen underscores, “Bitcoin has been holding on a lot better than most altcoins.” He uses examples from various cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Ada, and Polkadot to illustrate this trend, showing many are below their 20-week moving averages.
Market Movement and Dominance Trends
Cowen draws stark similarities between the current market and conditions in 2019, emphasizing, “If Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin dominance goes up; if Bitcoin goes down, Bitcoin dominance goes up.” This behavior stems from altcoins bleeding back value to Bitcoin.
Potential Impact of Gold and The FED
Gold’s breakout in 2019 coincided with Bitcoin’s downturn, a pattern Cowen suggests might be repeating: “Gold broke out right here in 2019 and that’s ultimately where the Bitcoin correction started from.” He doesn’t dismiss deviations from this narrative but remains cautious until clear evidence of change emerges.
Liquidity Shifts and ETF Influence
The launch of spot ETFs could have notable impacts but Cowen remains skeptical: “How do we know it’s not just doing the same thing it did in 2019… just prints lower highs?” He reiterates that, until monetary policy changes, he’s unconvinced of significant deviation from historical patterns.
Final Thoughts on Bitcoin’s Path
Cowen concludes with a note on dominance patterns: “Bitcoin dominance has never really stopped going up ever since this entire thing began.” He remains open to various outcomes but leans on historical precedence to suggest Bitcoin’s dominance will continue its upward trajectory.