Benjamin Cowen recently shared insights on Bitcoin’s year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) trends, and the CoinSpeech team has collected the most important highlights from his analysis. Scroll down to watch his latest video.
Historical Comparisons of Bear Market Years
Benjamin Cowen takes a deep dive into Bitcoin’s past performance by pinpointing similarities across various years, particularly focusing on bear market years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022. He notes that “the average of 2014 and 2018 … was basically where the 2022 year ended.” This historical context helps illuminate Bitcoin’s cyclical nature.
Pre-Halving vs. Halving Years
Exploring pre-halving years like 2015 and 2019, as well as the current year, 2023, Cowen states that “2023 actually ended up giving what we would typically see in a halving year.” This observation suggests that macro-economic factors such as the spot ETF and traditional market rallies may play influential roles.
The 2023 vs. 2024 Performance Contrast
Comparing 2023 to 2024, Cowen highlights that “2024 is currently underperforming 2023.” He adds that Bitcoin was “about 80% above the yearly open” this time in 2023, whereas in 2024, “it’s only about 36% above the yearly open.” This indicates a slower growth trajectory for Bitcoin in 2024.
The Importance of Summer Trends
A significant part of Cowen’s analysis revolves around Bitcoin’s summer trends, often characterized by a market lull. Even amidst “periods where it dropped 20%,” Cowen says, “the market was relatively flat until the fourth quarter of the year.” Thus, 2024 may similarly see stagnation until year’s end.
Diverse Yearly Comparisons
By broadening the analysis to other years like 2019, 2020, and even earlier, Cowen underscores the value of multiple comparisons. “It’s safe to drop that comparison,” he suggests if 2024 does not follow certain past trends, but he deems 2016 and 2021’s paths as potentially comparable.
Post-Halving Year Expectations
When considering future Bitcoin performance, Cowen reminds viewers that “the average of the last two post-halving years … has been tracking relatively closely.” This historical lens emphasizes the importance of understanding past cycles to project future outcomes.
Final Thoughts on Cycles and Market Predictions
To wrap up the analysis, Cowen leaves us with caution: “I don’t really think it’s valid to look back at any prior year and say that well, this is how it’s going to play out.” Each year brings unique conditions, making it vital to remain flexible and attentive to new market signals.