Benjamin Cowen recently shared insightful updates on Bitcoin, focusing on the Bull Market Support Band. The CoinSpeech team has gathered the most pivotal insights from Cowen’s latest analysis. You can find the new video below.
Current Market Status
Cowen highlighted that the 20-week SMA is significantly above current Bitcoin prices, sitting at 65.3k. While this seems reminiscent of 2023, the past week’s performance closed above the 21-week EMA, which stands now at 61.4k.
Addressing current levels, Cowen emphasized, “This is where you would expect for the Bulls to try to hold the line right at these levels.”
Historical Comparisons
Cowen compared the present scenario to past Bull and Bear cycles. “We’ve made this comparison to Bitcoin to both 2016 and 2019, obviously structurally there’s a lot of similarities to 2016,” he noted.
Interestingly, he pointed out that Bitcoin’s behavior post-halvings has varied: “If you look at having Cycle 2 and now having Cycle 4, you can see that it’s opposite—they actually went down after the halving.”
Key Levels of Resistance
Cowen stressed the importance of reclaiming critical resistance levels. “In the short term, your main area of resistance would be the 20-week moving average which coincidentally happens to correspond to around the 8-week moving average,” he explained. Both are converging around the price range of 65.3k to 65.8k.
Indicators and Trends
Several indicators are worth monitoring. Cowen pointed to the USDT dominance trend line and the 10-year yield curve: “USDT dominance is sort of inching above its bull market support band,” and “if the 10-year yield is starting to spike here again into October, that could correspond with Bitcoin just showing some of that seasonal weakness.”
Market participants should remain vigilant about these metrics, as they can often foreshadow impending price movements.
Final Thoughts
Summing up the tactical focus, Cowen emphasized that the next few weeks would be crucial. “In the short term…if Bitcoin holds 60k plus or minus a couple thousand and it bounces, can it actually get past the 20-week SMA and the 8-week SMA on a durable time frame.”