CoinSpeech team collected the most important insights from a recent discussion by Benjamin Cowen about Bitcoin’s market cycles and ROI. You can watch Benjamin Cowen’s new video below.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s ROI from Different Perspectives
Benjamin Cowen dives deep into Bitcoin’s market cycle ROI by measuring it through three different lenses: from the 2022 low, the 2021 peak, and the halving event. He believes that each of these perspectives offers a unique insight into the current Bitcoin cycle.
ROI Measured from the 2022 Low
Analyzing the ROI from Bitcoin’s low in 2022, Cowen points out an interesting trend. Right now, Bitcoin is up “about 4.36x” from this low, which is significantly higher than similar points in previous cycles. For context, it was “2.8x off the lows” in the last cycle and “3.27x off the lows” two cycles ago.
Cowen also brings attention to the idea of diminishing returns. Despite the market’s strong performance, he warns that it will take “exponentially more and more money to move the price” of Bitcoin as it gains mainstream adoption.
ROI Measured from the 2021 Peak
When measuring ROI from the 2021 peaks, Cowen considers both the April and November tops. As of now, he notes that Bitcoin is “about even” with its previous all-time high of around $69k. This places Bitcoin ahead compared to the last two cycles where, at similar points, it was “still about 40 to 50% down from the all-time high.”
He also elaborates on a debated topic: whether the April 2021 peak was the real top. Although most indicators suggested April was the significant top, Cowen emphasizes, “price action is King at the end of the day.”
ROI Measured from the Halving Event
The third way to measure ROI, although his least favorite, is from the halving event. Despite being a somewhat arbitrary point, Cowen still considers it valuable. He explains that “history shows” a pattern of initial excitement post-halving, often followed by a period of stagnation before any significant price moves.
Currently, Bitcoin is ranked third-best in terms of post-halving ROI, having risen about “7% above where we were at the halving.” For comparison, the first cycle saw a 15% increase, and the second cycle an 8% increase post-halving.
Conclusion
Cowen summarizes that each of these measurements—whether from the 2022 low, the 2021 peak, or the halving—provides useful insights into understanding Bitcoin’s market cycles and potential ROI. These multiple viewpoints help investors get a comprehensive picture of the market dynamics.